A Case-Only Study of Vulnerability to Heat Wave-Related Mortality in New York City (2000-2011)

• Published in: Environmental health perspectives Vol. 123; no. 7; p. 672
• Main Authors: Madrigano, Jaime, Ito, Kazuhiko, Johnson, Sarah, Kinney, Patrick L, Matte, Thomas
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences 01.07.2015; NLM-Export
• Subjects: Adult; Adults; African Americans - statistics & numerical data; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Analysis; Black people; Census; Census of Population; Censuses; Climate change; Climatic data; Data centers; Death; Environmental aspects; Ethnicity; Female; Global temperature changes; Green infrastructure; Health aspects; Heart attacks; Heat; Heat waves; Heatstroke; Hot Temperature - adverse effects; Hot weather; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Morbidity; Mortality; Multivariate analysis; Neighborhoods; New York; New York City - epidemiology; Public health; Regression analysis; Residence Characteristics; Risk Factors; Seasons; Socioeconomic Factors; Statistical analysis; Studies; Surface temperature; Temperature; Urban Population - statistics & numerical data; New York City; New York; United States > US; ANW, USA, New York, New York City
• ISSN: 0091-6765; 1552-9924; 1552-9924
• DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1408178

As a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Vulnerability patterns, and corresponding adaptation strategies, are most usefully conceptualized at a local level. We used a case-only analysis to examine subject and neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between heat waves and mortality. All deaths of New York City residents from 2000 through 2011 were included in this analysis. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Modifying characteristics were obtained from the death record and geographic data sets. A total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period. Compared with other warm-season days, deaths during heat waves were more likely to occur in black (non-Hispanic) individuals than other race/ethnicities [odds ratio (OR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12], more likely to occur at home than in institutions and hospital settings (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.16), and more likely among those living in census tracts that received greater public assistance (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.09). Finally, deaths during heat waves were more likely among residents in areas of the city with higher relative daytime summer surface temperature and less likely among residents living in areas with more green space. Mortality during heat waves varies widely within a city. Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.