Extending Macroeconomic Impacts Forecasting for NEMS

• Published in: The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.) Vol. 43; no. 4; p. 251
• Main Authors: Court, Christa D, Jackson, Randall W, Steele, Amanda J. Harker, Pickenpaugh, Gavin, Jarosi, Peter, Adder, Justin, Zelek, Charles
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: International Association for Energy Economics 01.07.2022; Sage Publications Ltd. (UK)
• Subjects: Econometric models; Economic forecasting; Energy industry; Forecasts and trends; Industry forecasts; United States
• ISSN: 0195-6574; 1944-9089
• DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.4szac

To comprehensively model the macroeconomic impacts that result from changes in long-term energy-economy forecasts, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) partnered with West Virginia University (WVU)'s Regional Research Institute to develop the NETL/WVU econometric input-output (ECIO) model. The NETL/WVU ECIO model is an impacts forecasting model that functions as an extension of the U.S. energy-economic models available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Market Allocation (MARKAL) model. The ECIO model integrates a macroeconomic econometric forecasting model and an input-output accounting framework along derived forecast scenarios detailing a baseline of the U.S. energy-economy and an alternative forecast on how power generation resources can meet future levels of energy demand to generate estimates of the impacts to gross domestic product, employment, and labor income. This manuscript provides an overview of the model design, assumptions, and standard outputs.