Geographical variability of spruce bark beetle development under climate change in the Czech Republic

• Published in: Journal of forest science (Praha) Vol. 57; no. 6
• Main Authors: Hlasny, T.,Narodne Lesnicke Centrum, Zvolen (Slovak Republic). Lesnicky Vyskumny Ustav, Zajickova, L.,Ceska Zemedelska Univ., Prague (Czech Republic). Fakulta Lesnicka a Drevarska, Turcani, M.,Ceska Zemedelska Univ., Prague (Czech Republic). Fakulta Lesnicka a Drevarska, Holusa, J.,Ceska Zemedelska Univ., Prague (Czech Republic). Fakulta Lesnicka a Drevarska, Sitkova, Z.,Narodne Lesnicke Centrum, Zvolen (Slovak Republic). Lesnicky Vyskumny Ustav
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 01.06.2011
• Subjects: AIR TEMPERATURE; ALTITUD; ALTITUDE; ANIMAL DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES; BOSQUE DE CONIFERAS; CAMBIO CLIMATICO; CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE; CLIMATIC CHANGE; CONIFEROUS FORESTS; CZECH REPUBLIC; DISTRIBUCION GEOGRAFICA; DISTRIBUTION GEOGRAPHIQUE; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS; ETAPAS DEL DESARROLLO ANIMAL; FACTEUR DU MILIEU; FACTORES AMBIENTALES; FOREST PESTS; FOREST STANDS; FORET RESINEUSE; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_16196; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_1666; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_1813; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_230; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_24199; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_2594; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_28080; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_30153; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_316; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_33095; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_35703; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_425; http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_5083; IPS TYPOGRAPHUS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MODELE MATHEMATIQUE; MODELOS MATEMATICOS; ORGANISME NUISIBLE A LA FORET; PESTS OF PLANTS; PEUPLEMENT FORESTIER; PLAGAS DE PLANTAS; PLAGAS FORESTALES; RAVAGEUR DES PLANTES; REPUBLICA CHECA; REPUBLIQUE TCHEQUE; RODALES; STADE DE DEVELOPPEMENT ANIMAL; TEMPERATURA DEL AIRE; TEMPERATURE DE L'AIR
• ISSN: 1212-4834
• DOI: 10.17221/104/2010-jfs

Climate change is expected to influence the distribution and population dynamics of many insect pests, with potential severe impacts on forests. Ips typographus is the most important forest insect pest in Europe whose development is strictly regulated by air temperature. Therefore, climate change is anticipated to induce changes in the pest's distribution and development. We used the PHENIPS model to evaluate climate change impacts on the distribution and voltinism of spruce bark beetle in the Czech Republic. Two future time periods - 2025-2050 (near future) and 2075-2100 (distant future) - are addressed. The period 1961-1990 is used as the reference. We found that while a two-generation regime dominated in the Czech Republic in the reference period, significant three-generation regime regions are projected to appear in the near future. In the distant future, the three-generation regime can be expected to occur over all existing coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The analysis of altitudinal shift of n-generation regime regions indicates noticeable expansion of Ips typographus development to higher elevations.