Futures price responses to USDA's Cold Storage report

• Published in: Agribusiness (New York, N.Y.) Vol. 13; no. 4; p. 393
• Main Authors: Colling, P.L. (Chicago Board of Trade.), Irwin, S.H, Zulauf, C.R
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hoboken Wiley Periodicals Inc 01.07.1997
• Subjects: Agribusiness; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural economics; Agriculture; ALMACENAMIENTO EN FRIO; CARNE DE CERDO; CERDO; COLD STORAGE; Commodity futures; COMMODITY MARKETS; COMPORTAMIENTO ECONOMICO; COMPORTEMENT ECONOMIQUE; ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR; ECONOMIC IMPACT; Economic theory; Estimates; ETATS UNIS; EUA; Food products; FORECASTING; Futures; FUTURES TRADING; Hogs; MARCHE A TERME; MARCHE DES PRODUITS DE BASE; MARKET PRICES; MERCADOS DE PRODUCTOS BASICOS; METHODE STATISTIQUE; METODOS ESTADISTICOS; OPERACIONES A PLAZO; PORCIN; PORK; PRECIOS DE MERCADO; Prices; PRIX DE MARCHE; Public policy; Rationality; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; Statistical analysis; STATISTICAL METHODS; STOCKAGE AU FROID; Studies; SWINE; TECHNIQUE DE PREVISION; TECNICAS DE PREDICCION; USA; VIANDE PORCINE; United States > US
• ISSN: 0742-4477; 1520-6297

An event study is conducted of the informational content of US Department of Agriculture's Cold Storage report of pork bellies over the period January 1989 to December 1992. Analysis of Knight-Ridders composite forecast derived from its pre-release survey of market analysts indicates it is a good proxy for the markets expectation of information contained in the report. Nearby pork belly and live hog futures prices are found to respond significantly to unanticipated information in the report. This finding supports the conclusion that the Cold Storage report provides information to the private market and, therefore, performs one of its public policy goals