Uncertainty assessment in climate change scenarios: a methodological proposal for management of forest ecosystem services

The work introduces a method to quantify potential impact of climate change on cultural ecosystem services in forests. The technique of Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Set is applied to face with the uncertainty due to climate change as well as subjective opinion of forest experts. Two forest managem...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inAnnals of Silvicultural Research Vol. 43; no. 1; pp. 23 - 34
Main Authors Sandro Sacchelli, Jacopo Bernetti, Augusto Marinelli
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Consiglio per la ricerca in agricoltura e l'analisi dell'economia agraria - Research Centre for Forestry and Wood 01.06.2019
Subjects
climate change-oriented silviculture
cultural ecosystem services
uncertainty evaluation
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Summary:The work introduces a method to quantify potential impact of climate change on cultural ecosystem services in forests. The technique of Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Set is applied to face with the uncertainty due to climate change as well as subjective opinion of forest experts. Two forest management scenario (current practices as well as climate change-oriented silviculture) are investigated for different time horizons. Results highlight the increasing uncertainty on climate change impact evaluation related to longer time horizons. Potential losses connected to current cultural ecosystem services provision are quantified from spatial as well as economic viewpoint. The method is tested for an illustrative example in the Tuscany region - central Italy.
ISSN:2284-354X
DOI:10.12899/asr-1802