Prospects for Expanding China's Trade Influence in the Post-Soviet Space

• Published in: Международные отношения no. 2; pp. 76 - 91
• Main Authors: Yanov, Aleksandr Aleksandrovich, Kostenko, Rostislav Aleksandrovich, Shergi, Zakaria
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 01.02.2025
• ISSN: 2454-0641; 2454-0641
• DOI: 10.7256/2454-0641.2025.2.74418

The subject of the study is the expansion of the trade influence of the People's Republic of China in the post-Soviet space during the period from 2013 to 2024. The author examines in detail such aspects of the topic as the development of transport infrastructure, energy cooperation, and industrial projects of the PRC in the countries of Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Eastern Europe. Special attention is given to China’s geoeconomic mechanisms, including the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, the use of financial instruments of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the "resources in exchange for infrastructure" strategy. The study analyzes the forms of Chinese capital penetration into the region’s economy, including joint ventures, the modernization of logistical hubs, and the transformation of the foreign trade structure. The object of observation is the bilateral trade relations of China with key countries of the former USSR and their participation in Beijing’s infrastructure initiatives. The research aims to identify the sustainability and long-term consequences of these processes for the regional balance of power. The research methodology is based on a systems and comparative-historical approach, including the analysis of statistical data, official programs, and infrastructure projects, as well as the application of SWOT analysis to identify the strengths and weaknesses of China’s strategy. The main findings of the study include the identification of key directions and mechanisms of China's trade penetration into the post-Soviet space, as well as the determination of factors contributing to its economic dominance in the region. The novelty of the research lies in the comprehensive analysis of China’s strategy, which combines investment, trade, infrastructure development, and energy cooperation. The author's special contribution to the study of the topic is the systematization of empirical data on trade turnover, infrastructure projects, and China’s investment activity in various countries of the post-Soviet region. The study also offers an original interpretation of the balance of influence between China, Russia, and the West within the framework of a polycentric model of interaction. The conclusion is drawn that China's trade model is of a long-term and strategic nature, gradually transforming the economic map of Eurasia and consolidating the PRC’s status as one of the key external economic actors in the post-Soviet space.