A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

• Published in: The Lancet (British edition) Vol. 380; no. 9859; pp. 2224 - 2260
• Main Authors: Lim, Stephen S, Adair-Rohani, Heather, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Atkinson, Charles, Bacchus, Loraine J, Bahalim, Adil N, Baxter, Amanda, Blore, Jed D, Boussinesq, Michel, Brauer, Michael, Brooks, Peter, Brunekreef, Bert, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Calabria, Bianca, Carapetis, Jonathan, Chafe, Zoe, Chen, Honglei, Chen, Jian Shen, Child, Jennifer Christine, Colson, K Ellicott, Cowie, Benjamin C, Davis, Adrian, Degenhardt, Louisa, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dherani, Mukesh, Ding, Eric L, Driscoll, Tim, Ali, Suad Eltahir, Engell, Rebecca E, Erwin, Patricia J, Fahimi, Saman, Finucane, Mariel M, Flaxman, Seth, Freedman, Greg, Giovannucci, Edward, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hosgood, H Dean, Jacklyn, Gemma L, Jasrasaria, Rashmi, Jonas, Jost B, Kan, Haidong, Kanis, John A, Kassebaum, Nicholas, Kawakami, Norito, Khatibzadeh, Shahab, Khoo, Jon-Paul, Lan, Qing, Leasher, Janet L, Lipshultz, Steven E, London, Stephanie, Lozano, Rafael, Lu, Yuan, Marcenes, Wagner, Marks, Robin, Martin, Randall, McGale, Paul, McGrath, John, Memish, Ziad A, Mensah, George A, Merriman, Tony R, Micha, Renata, Mishra, Vinod, Hanafiah, Khayriyyah Mohd, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Nelson, Paul K, Nolla, Joan Miquel, Olives, Casey, Parry, Charles DH, Petzold, Max, Pope, C Arden, Rao, Mayuree, Rehfuess, Eva A, Robinson, Carolyn, Room, Robin, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Sanchez-Riera, Lidia, Sapkota, Amir, Shi, Peilin, Sleet, David A, Stovner, Lars Jacob, Straif, Kurt, Van Dingenen, Rita, van Donkelaar, Aaron, Vijayakumar, Lakshmi, White, Richard A, Whiteford, Harvey, Wiersma, Steven T, Williams, Hywel C, Williams, Warwick, Woolf, Anthony D, Lopez, Alan D, Murray, Christopher JL, Ezzati, Majid
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 15.12.2012; Elsevier; Elsevier Limited; Elsevier B.V
• Subjects: 80 and over; Adolescent; Adult; adults; Age; Age Factors; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Air pollution; alcohols; Andes region; Australasian region; Biological and medical sciences; Blood pressure; Breast feeding; Cardiovascular disease; Causes de la mort; Causes of death; Central European region; Child; Child, Preschool; childhood; children; comparative risk assessment; Disabilities; disability-adjusted life year; Eastern European region; Epidemiology; Exposure; Factors de risc en les malalties; Female; Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa och socialmedicin; fruits; fuels; General aspects; Global Health; Health risk assessment; Health risks; Humans; Hypertension; Indoor air pollution; Infant; Infant, Newborn; infectious diseases; Injuries; Internal Medicine; Latin America; Male; Medical research; Medical sciences; methods; Middle Aged; Middle East; Miscellaneous; Mortality; Newborn; North America; Northern Africa; nutrient deficiencies; nutrition risk assessment; Pacific Ocean Islands; Particulate matter; particulates; Passive smoking; Poverty; Preschool; Prevention; Public health; Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine; Public health. Hygiene; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine; Quality-Adjusted Life Years; risk; Risk Assessment; Risk Assessment - methods; Risk Factors; Risk factors in diseases; Sanitation; Sex Factors; smoke; smoking (habit); sodium; South Asia; Studies; Sub-Saharan Africa; Tobacco; uncertainty; underweight; vitamin A; Western European region; World Health; Young Adult; zinc; Middle East; Northern Africa; Central European region; Andes region; Pacific Ocean Islands; Eastern European region; North America; Australasian region; Sub-Saharan Africa; Latin America; South Asia; Western European region; Medicine; Statistical analysis; Attributable risk; Risk factor; 1990; Cluster; Lesion; Epidemiology; Trauma; Comparative study; Morbidity; Public health
• ISSN: 0140-6736; 1474-547X; 1474-547X
• DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61766-8

Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2–7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5–7·0]), and household air pollution from solid fuels (4·3% [3·4–5·3]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8–9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 6·8% [5·5–8·0]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4–6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2–10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4–1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, Andean Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, most of Latin America, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.