Marrying Wright's Law to Thermodynamics for an Ideal Relative Final Cost-predicting Model of Carbon-fuel Substitution

• Published in: ChemRxiv
• Main Author: Pawelke, Roland Hermann
• Format: Paper
• Language: English
• Edition: 2
• Subjects: Carbon-based Materials; Chemical Education - General; Chemistry; Energy Storage; Environmental Science; Fuel Cells; Fuels - Energy Science; Fuels - Materials; Hydrogen Storage Materials; Industrial Manufacturing; Main Group Chemistry (Inorg.); Petrochemicals; Physical and Chemical Processes; Physical and Chemical Properties; Space Chemistry; Theory - Inorganic; Thermodynamics (Chem. Eng.); Thermodynamics (Physical Chem.); zero-carbon energy production alternative; fuel cost parameter estimation; zero-carbon; hydrogen economy implementation; Li-ion technologies; hydrogen economy; energy technologies evaluated; metal hydrides; economic assessment model; hydrogen technologies; Wright's law
• ISSN: 2573-2293
• DOI: 10.26434/chemrxiv.12613049.v2

The problem of assessing the cost of C-fuel substitution is approached by means of a general interpretation of Wright's law and the introduction of the concept of thermodynamic utility which derives from energy carrier specific energy and storage state conditions. Via the Bienaymé–Chebyshev inequality, the ideal final cost ratio is determined at three different probabilities each with regard to compressed hydrogen, liquid hydrogen and Li-ion technology. The 96 % probability values supposedly balance insight and interval size best: however, cost-parity is not a result in any case. This paper points out evidence for the thesis that the subject of C-fuel substitution is governed by an intrinsic thermodynamic causality beyond economic and human factors, ultimately defining hidden pre-existing ideal baseline thresholds to the achievable in reality.