Mapping the Antigenic and Genetic Evolution of Influenza Virus

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 305; no. 5682; pp. 371 - 376
• Main Authors: Smith, Derek J., Lapedes, Alan S., de Jong, Jan C., Bestebroer, Theo M., Rimmelzwaan, Guus F., Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus, Ron A. M. Fouchier
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC American Association for the Advancement of Science 16.07.2004; The American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subjects: Amino Acid Substitution; Antigenic Variation; Biological and medical sciences; Communicable Diseases; Epidemiology; Evolution; Evolution, Molecular; Evolutionary genetics; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Genes, Viral; Genetic aspects; Genetic Drift; Genetic mapping; Genetic Variation; Genetics; H3N2 subtype influenza A virus; Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests; Hemagglutinins, Viral - chemistry; Hemagglutinins, Viral - genetics; Hemagglutinins, Viral - immunology; Human genetics; Humans; Influenza; Influenza A virus; Influenza A virus - genetics; Influenza A virus - immunology; Influenza, Human - epidemiology; Influenza, Human - virology; Medical genetics; Microbiology; Molecular Sequence Data; Multidimensional Scaling; Mutagenesis, Site-Directed; Mutation; Observation; Pathogens; Seasons; Vaccination; Vaccines; Virology; Virology - methods; Viruses; Genetic mapping; Human; Genetic variability; Vaccine strain; Estimation; Vaccination; Orthomyxoviridae; Chromosome; Method; Virus; Prevention; Immunoprophylaxis; Influenzavirus A; Surveillance; Influenza A virus; Antigenic variation; Molecular epidemiology; Evolution; Genetics; Quantitative analysis
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.1097211

The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of vaccination. Further, this approach offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains, which could be achieved by quantifying the combined effects of population level immune escape and viral fitness on strain evolution.