The Forecasting of Transportation of People by Rail in Poland for 2024 in Terms of Economic Security in the Republic of Poland

The multidimensional comparative analyzes of transportation of people by rail were used in the article. The time series was analyzed and evaluated in order to detect the following phenomena: trend, seasonality and random factor. The initial time series was divided into parts in order to remove data...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of Security and Sustainability Issues Vol. 13; no. 1; pp. 427 - 436
Main Authors Kozicki, Bartosz, Lubiewski, Paweł, Błaszczak, Bartosz, Zámek, David
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published 10.02.2024
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Summary:The multidimensional comparative analyzes of transportation of people by rail were used in the article. The time series was analyzed and evaluated in order to detect the following phenomena: trend, seasonality and random factor. The initial time series was divided into parts in order to remove data that, due to the impact of a random phenomenon such as the COVID-19 pandemic, lost trends visible in the past (from January 2012 to December 2019). The Winters’ exponential smoothing method was used for the forecasting. The obtained forecast for 2024 is 390 380 000 passengers transported by rail in Poland. The mean absolute forecast error is 2,18.
ISSN:2029-7017
2029-7025
DOI:10.47459/jssi.2023.13.43