Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 12; no. 9; p. e0184194
• Main Authors: Dirnböck, Thomas, Djukic, Ika, Kitzler, Barbara, Kobler, Johannes, Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P, Posch, Max, Reinds, Gert Jan, Schlutow, Angela, Starlinger, Franz, Wamelink, Wieger G W
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 12.09.2017; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Air Pollution; Alterra - Biodiversiteit en beleid; Alterra - Biodiversity and policy; Alterra - Duurzaam bodemgebruik; Alterra - Sustainable soil management; Analysis; Atmospheric pollution; Austria; Biodiversiteit en Beleid; Biodiversity; Biodiversity and Policy; Biology and Life Sciences; Biomass; Carbon - analysis; Climate; Climate change; Climate change scenarios; Conservation of Natural Resources; Deposition; Duurzaam Bodembeheer; Duurzaam Bodemgebruik; Earth Sciences; Ecology and Environmental Sciences; Ecosystem; Emissions; Eutrophication; Forest ecology; Forest ecosystems; Forest protection; Forests; Future climates; Geochemistry; Global temperature changes; Habitats; Host plants; Immobilization; Influence; Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen; Nitrogen - analysis; Nutrient enrichment; Nutrient loss; Physical Sciences; Plants; Protection and preservation; Soil - chemistry; Soil dynamics; Species; Sustainable Soil Management; Sustainable Soil Use; Terrestrial ecosystems; WIMEK; Austria; Germany; Asia; North America; Europe
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0184194

Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered.