Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China

• Published in: Emerging infectious diseases Vol. 26; no. 5; pp. 1049 - 1052
• Main Authors: Du, Zhanwei, Wang, Lin, Cauchemez, Simon, Xu, Xiaoke, Wang, Xianwen, Cowling, Benjamin J., Meyers, Lauren Ancel
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases 01.05.2020; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• Subjects: 2019-nCoV; Betacoronavirus; China; China - epidemiology; Cities; Cities and towns; coronavirus; Coronavirus Infections; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease Outbreaks; Disease transmission; Diseases; Epidemics; epidemiology; Estimates; Exports; Fatalities; Forecasting; Humans; importation; Infections; Infectious diseases; International economic relations; Laboratories; Mathematics; Metropolitan areas; Mobility; Models, Statistical; Novels; outbreak; Pandemics; Pneumonia; Pneumonia, Viral; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; Public health; Public health movements; Quarantine; Research Letter; Respiratory tract diseases; Risk Assessment; Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China; SARS-CoV-2; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Statistics; Stochastic Processes; Transportation; Transportation industry; War stories; Wuhan; China; Cities; United States > US; COVID-19; epidemiology; SARS-CoV-2; viruses; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; China; Wuhan; coronavirus; outbreak; 2019 novel coronavirus disease; importation
• ISSN: 1080-6040; 1080-6059; 1080-6059
• DOI: 10.3201/eid2605.200146

On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.