Estimating the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 in Western Europe

To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe. Data (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to est...

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Published inPloS one Vol. 16; no. 3; p. e0248731
Main Authors Locatelli, Isabella, Trächsel, Bastien, Rousson, Valentin
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States Public Library of Science 17.03.2021
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subjects
Basic Reproduction Number - statistics & numerical data
Biology and Life Sciences
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data
Disease transmission
Distribution
Epidemics
Europe - epidemiology
Growth rate
Humans
Medicine and Health Sciences
Pandemics
People and Places
Physical Sciences
Population
Primary care
Public health
Research and Analysis Methods
SARS-CoV-2 - pathogenicity
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Social aspects
Social Sciences
Western Europe
Europe
Western Europe
United Kingdom > UK
Switzerland
Spain
Austria
Norway
Ireland
China
Finland
Denmark
Italy
France
Germany
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Summary:To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe. Data (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to estimate the exponential growth rate of the disease. The rate was then combined with estimates of the distribution of the generation interval as reconstructed from the literature. Despite the possible unreliability of some official statistics about COVID-19, the spread of the disease appears to be remarkably similar in most European countries, allowing us to estimate an average R0 in Western Europe of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9-2.6). The value of R0 for COVID-19 in Western Europe appears to be significantly lower than that in China. The proportion of immune persons in the European population required to stop the outbreak could thus be closer to 50% than to 70%.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0248731