Patterns and perceptions of climate change in a biodiversity conservation hotspot

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 7; no. 2; p. e32408
• Main Authors: Hartter, Joel, Stampone, Mary D, Ryan, Sadie J, Kirner, Karen, Chapman, Colin A, Goldman, Abraham
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 27.02.2012; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Adaptive management; African rift system; Agricultural management; Agriculture; Agriculture - methods; Analysis; Biodiversity; Biodiversity conservation; Biodiversity hot spots; Biology; Climate; Climate Change; Climatological normals; Conservation; Conservation of Natural Resources; Content analysis; Daily precipitation; Daily rainfall data; Data analysis; Data processing; Dry periods; Earth Sciences; Ecological effects; Ecology; Ecosystem; Environmental assessment; Environmental protection; Environmental science; Farmers; Food; Food security; Food Supply; Forests; Global temperature changes; Habitat loss; Humans; Information management; Interdisciplinary aspects; Inuit; Knowledge; Land conservation; Local climates; National parks; Natural resources; Perception; Perceptions; Polls & surveys; Population; Population density; Poverty; Precipitation; Protection and preservation; Public Opinion; Rain; Rainfall; Rainfall data analysis; Rainfall distribution; Rainfall forecasting; Rainy season; Seasonal distribution; Seasonal rainfall; Seasons; Social and Behavioral Sciences; Trends; Tropical environment; Tropical environments; Uganda; Wildlife conservation; Uganda; New York; United States > US; Africa; California; Florida; Kenya; Canada; Nunavut Territory Canada; Santa Barbara California; Clyde River; New Hampshire; East Africa
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0032408

Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management.