The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study

Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Unit...

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Published inPLoS medicine Vol. 21; no. 1; p. e1004325
Main Authors Althoff, Keri N, Stewart, Cameron, Humes, Elizabeth, Gerace, Lucas, Boyd, Cynthia, Gebo, Kelly, Justice, Amy C, Hyle, Emily P, Coburn, Sally B, Lang, Raynell, Silverberg, Michael J, Horberg, Michael A, Lima, Viviane D, Gill, M John, Karris, Maile, Rebeiro, Peter F, Thorne, Jennifer, Rich, Ashleigh J, Crane, Heidi, Kitahata, Mari, Rubtsova, Anna, Wong, Cherise, Leng, Sean, Marconi, Vincent C, D'Souza, Gypsyamber, Kim, Hyang Nina, Napravnik, Sonia, McGinnis, Kathleen, Kirk, Gregory D, Sterling, Timothy R, Moore, Richard D, Kasaie, Parastu
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States Public Library of Science 12.01.2024
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
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Summary:Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.
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KNA serves on the scientific review board for TrioHealth Inc and as a consultant to the All of Us Research Program. MJG has been an Hoc member on national HIV Advisory Boards of Merck, Gilead and ViiV. CW is currently employed by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc and contributed to this article as a prior trainee of Johns Hopkins University. KG declares that his institution receives funding from U.S. Department of Defense’s (DOD) Joint Program Executive Office for Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Defense (JPEO-CBRND), in collaboration with the Defense Health Agency (DHA) (contract number: W911QY2090012), Bloomberg Philanthropies, State of Maryland, NIH National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) U24TR001609, Division of Intramural Research NIAID NIH, Mental Wellness Foundation, Moriah Fund, Octapharma, HealthNetwork Foundation, and the Shear Family Foundation for her work. KG received royalties from UptoDate and served as a paid consultant to Aspen Institute, and Teach for America. KG declares that none of these funding sources are related to this manuscript. PFR declares consultation with Gilead & Janssen pharmaceuticals (money paid to individual); research grants from NIH/NIAID (money paid to institution). JT declares to be consultant for AbbVie, Canfield, Gilead, Roche and Tarsier and being Equity owner for Tarsier. VFM has received support from the Emory CFAR (P30 AI050409) and received investigator-initiated research grants (to the institution) and consultation fees (both unrelated to the current work) from Eli Lilly, Bayer, Gilead Sciences, and ViiV. HNK declares that Gilead Sciences program funding paid to the author’s institution. The following authors have declared that no competing interests exist: CS, EH, LG, CB, ACJ, EH, SC, RL, MJS, MH, VL, MK, AJR, HC, MK, AR, SL, GDS, SN, KMG, GDK, TRS, RDM, PK.
ISSN:1549-1676
1549-1277
1549-1676
DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1004325