V-, U-, L- or W-shaped economic recovery after Covid-19: Insights from an Agent Based Model

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 16; no. 3; p. e0247823
• Main Authors: Sharma, Dhruv, Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, Gualdi, Stanislao, Tarzia, Marco, Zamponi, Francesco
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 02.03.2021; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Agent-based models; Computer and Information Sciences; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; Economic aspects; Economic conditions; Economic models; Economic recovery; Employment - statistics & numerical data; Epidemics; Forecasts and trends; France; Heterogeneity; Humans; Income - statistics & numerical data; Inflation, Economic; Linearity; Macroeconomics; Mathematical models; Medicine and Health Sciences; Models, Economic; Nonlinearity; Numerical simulations; Pandemics; Physics; Recessions; Recovery; Recovery (Medical); Simulation; Social Sciences; Software; Supply & demand; Systems Analysis; Telescopes; Unemployment - statistics & numerical data; France
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247823

We discuss the impact of a Covid-19-like shock on a simple model economy, described by the previously developed Mark-0 Agent-Based Model. We consider a mixed supply and demand shock, and show that depending on the shock parameters (amplitude and duration), our model economy can display V-shaped, U-shaped or W-shaped recoveries, and even an L-shaped output curve with permanent output loss. This is due to the economy getting trapped in a self-sustained "bad" state. We then discuss two policies that attempt to moderate the impact of the shock: giving easy credit to firms, and the so-called helicopter money, i.e. injecting new money into the households savings. We find that both policies are effective if strong enough. We highlight the potential danger of terminating these policies too early, although inflation is substantially increased by lax access to credit. Finally, we consider the impact of a second lockdown. While we only discuss a limited number of scenarios, our model is flexible and versatile enough to accommodate a wide variety of situations, thus serving as a useful exploratory tool for a qualitative, scenario-based understanding of post-Covid recovery. The corresponding code is available on-line.