Assessment of optimal strategies in a two-patch dengue transmission model with seasonality

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 12; no. 3; p. e0173673
• Main Authors: Kim, Jung Eun, Lee, Hyojung, Lee, Chang Hyeong, Lee, Sunmi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 16.03.2017; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Aedes aegypti; Analysis; Applied mathematics; Biology; Climate change; Commuting; Control theory; Demographics; Demography; Dengue; Dengue - epidemiology; Dengue - transmission; Dengue fever; Disease; Disease control; Disease Outbreaks; Disease transmission; Earth Sciences; Epidemics; Epidemiology; Fever; Human motion; Humans; Influenza; Mathematical models; Medicine and Health Sciences; Mobility; Models, Theoretical; Mosquitoes; Optimal control; Outbreaks; Pandemics; Partial differential equations; Patches (structures); People and Places; Peru - epidemiology; Population; Public health; Residential density; Rural areas; Science; Seasonal variations; Seasonal variations (Diseases); Seasons; Social Sciences; Studies; Temperature effects; Tropical Climate; Tropical diseases; Urban areas; Vector-borne diseases; Vectors (Biology); Viral diseases; West Nile virus
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173673

Emerging and re-emerging dengue fever has posed serious problems to public health officials in many tropical and subtropical countries. Continuous traveling in seasonally varying areas makes it more difficult to control the spread of dengue fever. In this work, we consider a two-patch dengue model that can capture the movement of host individuals between and within patches using a residence-time matrix. A previous two-patch dengue model without seasonality is extended by adding host demographics and seasonal forcing in the transmission rates. We investigate the effects of human movement and seasonality on the two-patch dengue transmission dynamics. Motivated by the recent Peruvian dengue data in jungle/rural areas and coast/urban areas, our model mimics the seasonal patterns of dengue outbreaks in two patches. The roles of seasonality and residence-time configurations are highlighted in terms of the seasonal reproduction number and cumulative incidence. Moreover, optimal control theory is employed to identify and evaluate patch-specific control measures aimed at reducing dengue prevalence in the presence of seasonality. Our findings demonstrate that optimal patch-specific control strategies are sensitive to seasonality and residence-time scenarios. Targeting only the jungle (or endemic) is as effective as controlling both patches under weak coupling or symmetric mobility. However, focusing on intervention for the city (or high density areas) turns out to be optimal when two patches are strongly coupled with asymmetric mobility.