A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

• Published in: Infectious diseases of poverty Vol. 9; no. 1; pp. 24 - 8
• Main Authors: Chen, Tian-Mu, Rui, Jia, Wang, Qiu-Peng, Zhao, Ze-Yu, Cui, Jing-An, Yin, Ling
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England BioMed Central Ltd 28.02.2020; BioMed Central; BMC
• Subjects: Analysis; Animals; Basic reproduction number; Betacoronavirus - growth & development; Chiroptera - virology; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - transmission; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease Reservoirs - veterinary; Disease Reservoirs - virology; Disease transmission; Disease Transmission, Infectious; Humans; Infection; Mathematical model; Models, Theoretical; Next generation matrix; Novel coronavirus; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral - transmission; Reservoirs; Respiratory tract infections; SARS-CoV-2; Seafood; Time Factors; Transmissibility; China; Basic reproduction number; Next generation matrix; Transmissibility; Mathematical model; Novel coronavirus
• ISSN: 2049-9957; 2095-5162; 2049-9957
• DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3

As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R ) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. The value of R was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.