Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 104; no. 50; pp. 19691 - 19696
• Main Authors: Howden, S. Mark, Soussana, Jean-François, Tubiello, Francesco N., Chhetri, Netra, Dunlop, Michael, Meinke, Holger
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States National Academy of Sciences 11.12.2007; National Acad Sciences
• Series: Climate Change and Food Security Special Feature
• Subjects: Adaptability; adaptation; Agricultural management; Agriculture; Agriculture - trends; Agroecosystems; Animals; biodiversity; Biological Sciences; change impacts; Climate; Climate change; Climate change adaptation; Climate Change and Food Security Special Feature; Climate change policy; Climate models; Climate variability; co2; Conservation of Natural Resources; Crop management; crop production; Cropping systems; crops; environmental impact; Environmental risk; Environmental Sciences; Farming; Farming systems; fertilization; Fisheries management; Food Supply; Forecasting; Forestry; Greenhouse Effect; Humans; Life Sciences; management; policy; Public Policy; Resource allocation; Risk factors; Risk management; scenarios; Sustainable agriculture; Sustainable development; united-states; variability; cropping; greenhouse; adaptation; grazing; forestry
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0701890104

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.