High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R ) of...

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Published in	Emerging infectious diseases Vol. 26; no. 7; pp. 1470 - 1477
Main Authors	Sanche, Steven, Lin, Yen Ting, Xu, Chonggang, Romero-Severson, Ethan, Hengartner, Nick, Ke, Ruian
Format	Journal Article
Language	English
Published	United States U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases 01.07.2020 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Subjects	2019 novel coronavirus disease 60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES Analysis Basic Reproduction Number Betacoronavirus China - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control Coronavirus Infections - transmission Coronaviruses COVID-19 Development and progression Disease control Disease Outbreaks Disease transmission Epidemics Estimates Health aspects Health care High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Hospitalization Humans Infections Medical research Models, Theoretical Pandemics - prevention & control Pathogens Pneumonia Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - transmission Provinces respiratory infections SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Surveillance Travel Travelers viruses China COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 viruses modeling severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 China Wuhan transmission potential zoonoses 2019 novel coronavirus disease respiratory infections
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Abstract	Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R ) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
AbstractList	Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R 0 ) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R 0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R ) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). Here, we further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
Audience	Professional Academic
Author	Hengartner, Nick Xu, Chonggang Romero-Severson, Ethan Lin, Yen Ting Sanche, Steven Ke, Ruian
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Steven surname: Sanche fullname: Sanche, Steven – sequence: 2 givenname: Yen Ting surname: Lin fullname: Lin, Yen Ting – sequence: 3 givenname: Chonggang surname: Xu fullname: Xu, Chonggang – sequence: 4 givenname: Ethan surname: Romero-Severson fullname: Romero-Severson, Ethan – sequence: 5 givenname: Nick surname: Hengartner fullname: Hengartner, Nick – sequence: 6 givenname: Ruian surname: Ke fullname: Ke, Ruian
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32255761$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1760607$$D View this record in Osti.gov
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PublicationTitleAlternate	Emerg Infect Dis
PublicationYear	2020
Publisher	U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Publisher_xml	– sequence: 0 name: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – name: U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases – name: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
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SubjectTerms	2019 novel coronavirus disease 60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES Analysis Basic Reproduction Number Betacoronavirus China - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control Coronavirus Infections - transmission Coronaviruses COVID-19 Development and progression Disease control Disease Outbreaks Disease transmission Epidemics Estimates Health aspects Health care High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Hospitalization Humans Infections Medical research Models, Theoretical Pandemics - prevention & control Pathogens Pneumonia Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - transmission Provinces respiratory infections SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Surveillance Travel Travelers viruses
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Title	High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
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