High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

• Published in: Emerging infectious diseases Vol. 26; no. 7; pp. 1470 - 1477
• Main Authors: Sanche, Steven, Lin, Yen Ting, Xu, Chonggang, Romero-Severson, Ethan, Hengartner, Nick, Ke, Ruian
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases 01.07.2020; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• Subjects: 2019 novel coronavirus disease; 60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; Analysis; Basic Reproduction Number; Betacoronavirus; China - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control; Coronavirus Infections - transmission; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Development and progression; Disease control; Disease Outbreaks; Disease transmission; Epidemics; Estimates; Health aspects; Health care; High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2; Hospitalization; Humans; Infections; Medical research; Models, Theoretical; Pandemics - prevention & control; Pathogens; Pneumonia; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control; Pneumonia, Viral - transmission; Provinces; respiratory infections; SARS-CoV-2; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Surveillance; Travel; Travelers; viruses; China; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; viruses; modeling; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; China; Wuhan; transmission potential; zoonoses; 2019 novel coronavirus disease; respiratory infections
• ISSN: 1080-6040; 1080-6059; 1080-6059
• DOI: 10.3201/eid2607.200282

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R ) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.