The 9th grade shock and the high school dropout crisis

• Published in: Social science research Vol. 41; no. 3; pp. 709 - 730
• Main Authors: Pharris-Ciurej, Nikolas, Hirschman, Charles, Willhoft, Joseph
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Elsevier Inc 01.05.2012; Academic Press
• Subjects: 9th Grade shock; Academic Achievement; Academic performance; Adjustment; Attrition; census; crises; Dropouts; Educational Attainment; Educational inequality; Enrollment; Estimation; High school completion process; High school dropouts; High school graduates; High School Students; High Schools; Level of education; Life course; Metropolitan areas; Qualifications; Risk factors; School Districts; School environment; schools; Secondary schools; Social disadvantage; Social research; Social science research; Socioeconomic factors; Student behaviour; Student retention; High school completion process; Educational inequality; 9th Grade shock; Life course; High school dropouts; Academic performance
• ISSN: 0049-089X; 1096-0317
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2011.11.014

► We use administrative records to measure patterns of high school attrition and graduation. ► We find that failure, as measured by grade retention and attrition, are as common graduation. ► Our results challenge the notion that levels of high school completion are nearly universal. ► The ‘9th grade shock’, a decline in 9th grade GPA relative to 8th, is a key explanatory variable. ► The ‘9th grade shock’ both mediates background measures and is associated with graduation. Retrospective questions on educational attainment in national surveys and censuses tend to over-estimate high school graduation rates by 15–20% points relative to administrative records. Administrative data on educational enrollment are, however, only available at the aggregate level (state, school district, and school levels) and the recording of inter-school transfers are generally incomplete. With access to linked individual-level administrative records from a very large “West Coast metropolitan school district” we track patterns of high school attrition and on-time high school graduation of individual students. Even with adjustments for the omission of out-of-district transfers (estimates of omission are presented), the results of this study show that failure in high school, as indexed by retention and attrition, are almost as common as on-time high school graduation. In addition to the usual risk factors of disadvantaged background, we find that the “9th grade shock”—an unpredicted decline in academic performance upon entering high school—is a key mechanism behind the continuing crisis of high school attrition.