Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis

• Published in: The Lancet (British edition) Vol. 380; no. 9857; pp. 1956 - 1965
• Main Authors: Morse, Stephen S, Prof, Mazet, Jonna AK, Prof, Woolhouse, Mark, Prof, Parrish, Colin R, Prof, Carroll, Dennis, PhD, Karesh, William B, DVM, Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos, MSc, Lipkin, W Ian, Prof, Daszak, Peter, Dr
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2012; Elsevier; Elsevier Limited
• Subjects: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome; AIDS; Animals; Biodiversity; Biological and medical sciences; Blood-Borne Pathogens; Communicable Diseases, Emerging - epidemiology; Communicable Diseases, Emerging - prevention & control; Ecology; Environmental Monitoring; General aspects; Global Health; Health Policy; Heparan sulfate; HIV; hosts; Human immunodeficiency virus; Humans; Infectious diseases; Influenza; Internal Medicine; International Cooperation; Livestock; mathematical models; Medical sciences; microorganisms; Miscellaneous; monitoring; Mortality; Mutation; pandemic; Pandemics; Pandemics - prevention & control; pathogens; Population density; prediction; Prevention; Prevention and actions; Public health; Public health. Hygiene; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine; Risk assessment; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; Travel; Virus Diseases - epidemiology; Virus Diseases - prevention & control; Viruses; Zoonoses; Zoonoses - epidemiology; World; Infection; Medicine; Prevention; Prediction; Zoonosis; Predictive factor; Public health
• ISSN: 0140-6736; 1474-547X
• DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61684-5

Most pandemics—eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza—originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.