Intermediate levels of vaccination coverage may minimize seasonal influenza outbreaks

For most pathogens, vaccination reduces the spread of the infection and total number of cases; thus, public policy usually advocates maximizing vaccination coverage. We use simple mathematical models to explore how this may be different for pathogens, such as influenza, which exhibit strain variatio...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inPloS one Vol. 13; no. 6; p. e0199674
Main Authors Zarnitsyna, Veronika I., Bulusheva, Irina, Handel, Andreas, Longini, Ira M., Halloran, M. Elizabeth, Antia, Rustom
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States Public Library of Science 26.06.2018
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subjects
Bacterial infections
Biology and Life Sciences
Control
Disease Outbreaks
Epidemics
Humans
Immunity
Infections
Influenza
Influenza vaccines
Influenza Vaccines - administration & dosage
Influenza, Human - epidemiology
Influenza, Human - prevention & control
Mathematical models
Medicine and Health Sciences
Outbreaks
Pandemics
Pathogens
Patient outcomes
Public concern
Public policy
Seasons
Vaccination
Vaccine efficacy
Vaccines
Viruses
Atlanta Georgia
United States > US
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Summary:For most pathogens, vaccination reduces the spread of the infection and total number of cases; thus, public policy usually advocates maximizing vaccination coverage. We use simple mathematical models to explore how this may be different for pathogens, such as influenza, which exhibit strain variation. Our models predict that the total number of seasonal influenza infections is minimized at an intermediate (rather than maximal) level of vaccination, and, somewhat counter-intuitively, further increasing the level of the vaccination coverage may lead to higher number of influenza infections and be detrimental to the public interest. This arises due to the combined effects of: competition between multiple co-circulating strains; limited breadth of protection afforded by the vaccine; and short-term strain-transcending immunity following natural infection. The study highlights the need for better quantification of the components of vaccine efficacy and longevity of strain-transcending cross-immunity in order to generate nuanced recommendations for influenza vaccine coverage levels.
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Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0199674