Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 17; no. 1; p. e0262116
• Main Authors: Gahbauer, Marcel A, Parker, Scott R, Wu, Joanna X, Harpur, Cavan, Bateman, Brooke L, Whitaker, Darroch M, Tate, Douglas P, Taylor, Lotem, Lepage, Denis
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 21.01.2022; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Animal populations; Animals; Arctic zone; Biodiversity; Biology and Life Sciences; Bird populations; Birds; Birds - physiology; Canada; Climate Change; Climatic changes; Colonization; Conservation; Conservation of Natural Resources - methods; Conservation practices; Cultural heritage; Distribution; Earth Sciences; Ecology and Environmental Sciences; Ecosystem conservation; Environmental aspects; Environmental changes; Environmental conditions; Environmental impact; Forecasts and trends; General circulation models; Geographical distribution; Ice environments; Marine conservation; Methods; National parks; National parks and reserves; Parks & recreation areas; Parks, Recreational; People and places; Polar environments; Protected areas; Seasons; Species richness; Summer; Vegetation; Wildlife conservation; Winter; Canada; Ontario Canada; New York; United States > US; New York City New York
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262116

National parks often serve as a cornerstone for a country's species and ecosystem conservation efforts. However, despite the protection these sites afford, climate change is expected to drive a substantial change in their bird assemblages. We used species distribution models to predict the change in environmental suitability (i.e., how well environmental conditions explain the presence of a species) of 49 Canadian national parks during summer and winter for 434 bird species under a 2°C warming scenario, anticipated to occur in Canada around the mid-21st century. We compared these to existing species distributions in the 2010s, and classified suitability projections for each species at each park as potential extirpation, worsening, stable, improving, or potential colonisation. Across all parks, and both seasons, 70% of the projections indicate change, including a 25% turnover in summer assemblages and 30% turnover in winter assemblages. The majority of parks are projected to have increases in species richness and functional traits in winter, compared to a mix of increases and decreases in both in summer. However, some changes are expected to vary by region, such as Arctic region parks being likely to experience the most potential colonisation, while some of the Mixedwood Plains and Atlantic Maritime region parks may experience the greatest turnover and potential extirpation in summer if management actions are not taken to mitigate some of these losses. Although uncertainty exists around the precise rate and impacts of climate change, our results indicate that conservation practices that assume stationarity of environmental conditions will become untenable. We propose general guidance to help managers adapt their conservation actions to consider the potentially substantive changes in bird assemblages that are projected, including managing for persistence and change.