Investigating the effects of food available and climatic variables on the animal host density of hemorrhagic Fever with renal syndrome in changsha, china

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 8; no. 4; p. e61536
• Main Authors: Xiao, Hong, Liu, Hai-Ning, Gao, Li-Dong, Huang, Cun-Rui, Li, Zhou, Lin, Xiao-Ling, Chen, Bi-Yun, Tian, Huai-Yu
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 24.04.2013; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Analysis; Animal Feed; Animal models; Animals; Antigens; Autoregressive models; Biology; Care and treatment; China - epidemiology; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climate variability; Climatic data; Climatic variability; Correlation; Correlation analysis; Data processing; Density; Disease control; Disease prevention; Disease Vectors; Epidemics; Fever; Food; Food availability; Food supply; Geography; Hemorrhage; Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome; Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome - epidemiology; Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome - transmission; Hemorrhagic fevers; Humans; Independent variables; Infections; Investigations; Kidneys; Mean monthly temperatures; Mean temperatures; Medicine; Models, Theoretical; MODIS; Monthly mean temperatures; Normalized difference vegetative index; Population; Population Density; Population Dynamics; Precipitation; Predation; Rainfall; Regression analysis; Rice fields; Risk factors; Rodentia; Rodents; Science; Seasons; Studies; Time series; Variables; Vegetation; Vegetation index; Veterinary Science; China; Beijing China; Europe
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0061536

The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by population dynamics of its main host, rodents. It is therefore important to better understand rodents' characteristic in epidemic areas. We examined the potential impact of food available and climatic variability on HFRS rodent host and developed forecasting models. Monthly rodent density of HFRS host and climate data in Changsha from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained. Monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) for rice paddies were extracted from MODIS data. Cross-correlation analysis were carried out to explore correlation between climatic variables and food available with monthly rodent data. We used auto-regressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables and food supply to rodent density. The results indicated that relative rodent density of HFRS host was significantly correlated with monthly mean temperatures, monthly accumulative precipitation, TVDI and NDVI with lags of 1-6 months. Food available plays a significant role in population fluctuations of HFRS host in Changsha. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.