Evaluating the Effects of Land Use Planning for Non-Point Source Pollution Based on a System Dynamics Approach in China

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 10; no. 8; p. e0135572
• Main Authors: Kuai, Peng, Li, Wei, Liu, Nianfeng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 12.08.2015; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Analysis; Case studies; Chemical oxygen demand; China; Computer simulation; Developing countries; Environmental aspects; Environmental Monitoring - methods; Environmental protection; Environmental quality; Land pollution; Land use; Land use controls; Land use management; Land use planning; LDCs; Models, Theoretical; Nonpoint source pollution; Point source pollution; Pollutants; Pollution; Pollution effects; Population; Rivers; Runoff; Science; Studies; Surface water; System dynamics; Urbanization; Water Pollution - analysis; Watersheds; China; Beijing China
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0135572

Urbanization is proceeding rapidly in several developing countries such as China. This accelerating urbanization alters the existing land use types in a way that results in more Non-Point Source (NPS) pollution to local surface waters. Reasonable land use planning is necessary. This paper compares seven planning scenarios of a case study area, namely Wulijie, China, from the perspective of NPS pollution. A System Dynamics (SD) model was built for the comparison to adequately capture the planning complexity. These planning scenarios, which were developed by combining different land use intensities (LUIs) and construction speeds (CSs), were then simulated. The results show that compared to scenario S1 (business as usual) all other scenarios will introduce more NPS pollution (with an incremental rate of 22%-70%) to Wulijie. Scenario S6 was selected as the best because it induced relatively less NPS pollution while simultaneously maintaining a considerable development rate. Although LUIs represent a more critical factor compared to CSs, we conclude that both LUIs and CSs need to be taken into account to make the planning more environmentally friendly. Considering the power of SD in decision support, it is recommended that land use planning should take into consideration findings acquired from SD simulations.