The estimated benefits of increasing cigarette prices through taxation on the burden of disease and economic burden of smoking in Nigeria: A modeling study

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 17; no. 3; p. e0264757
• Main Authors: Bardach, Ariel, Casarini, Agustín, Rodriguez Cairoli, Federico, Adeniran, Adedeji, Castradori, Marco, Akanonu, Precious, Onyekwena, Chukwuka, Espinola, Natalia, Pichon-Riviere, Andrés, Palacios, Alfredo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 02.03.2022; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Biology and Life Sciences; Cardiovascular disease; Caregivers; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Cigarette smoking; Cigarettes; Commerce; Cost of Illness; Costs; Disease; Economic aspects; Economic impact; Economic models; Elasticity of demand; Epidemiology; Excise taxes; Fatalities; Financial Stress; Health care expenditures; Humans; Impact analysis; Medicine and Health Sciences; Monte Carlo simulation; Morbidity; Mortality; Nigeria - epidemiology; People and Places; Price elasticity; Prices; Prices and rates; Productivity; Public health; Quality of life; Smoking; Smoking - epidemiology; Social Sciences; Tax revenues; Taxation; Taxes; Tobacco; Tobacco Products; Nigeria; Argentina; Abuja Nigeria; United States > US; Africa
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264757

Globally, tobacco consumption continues to cause a considerable burden of preventable diseases. Although the smoking prevalence in Nigeria may be declining over the last years, the absolute number of active smokers remains one of the highest in Africa. Little is known about the disease burden and economic costs of cigarette smoking in Nigeria. Consequently, there is an evidence gap to inform the design and implementation of an effective policy for tobacco control. We applied a microsimulation model to estimate the burden attributable to smoking in terms of morbidity, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and direct medical costs and indirect costs (e.g., productivity loss costs, informal caregivers' costs). We also modeled the health and economic impact of different scenarios of tobacco price increases through taxes. We estimated that smoking is responsible for approximately 29,000 annual deaths in Nigeria. This burden corresponds to 816,230 DALYs per year. In 2019, the total economic burden attributable to tobacco was estimated at ₦ 634 billion annually (approximately U$D 2.07 billion). If tobacco cigarettes' prices were to be raised by 50% through taxes, more than 30,000 deaths from smoking-attributable diseases would be averted in 10 years, with subsequent savings on direct and indirect costs of ₦597 billion and increased tax revenue collection of ₦369 billion. In Nigeria, tobacco is responsible for substantial health and economic burden. Increasing tobacco taxes could reduce this burden and produce net economic benefits.