Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 17; no. 9; p. e0275216
• Main Authors: López Vázquez, Pablo Carlos, Sánchez González, Gilberto, Martínez Ortega, Jorge, Arroyo Duarte, Renato Salomón
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: San Francisco Public Library of Science 29.09.2022; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Analysis; Approximation; Biology and Life Sciences; Control; Disease transmission; Epidemic models; Epidemics; Epidemiology; First principles; Herd immunity; Infections; Medicine and Health Sciences; Mexico; People and places; Pharmaceuticals; Physical Sciences; Poisson distribution; Population; Probability; Random variables; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Social distancing; Stochastic models; Stochasticity; Time dependence; Mexico
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275216

In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Poisson distribution. The model, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious-(Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation together with a modulation of the mean number of new infections (the Poisson parameters), provides a good tool to study theoretical and real scenarios.