Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines
We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodolog...
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Published in | Biology letters (2005) Vol. 5; no. 2; pp. 248 - 251 |
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Main Authors | , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
London
The Royal Society
23.04.2009
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is −13 per cent (from −97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500±373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa. |
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Bibliography: | istex:1CC9AB8489ABFB10997F0B7CEE85183099E41226 ark:/67375/V84-LW83BPKZ-H ArticleID:rsbl20080715 href:248.pdf ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
ISSN: | 1744-9561 1744-957X |
DOI: | 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715 |