Re-theorizing Family Demographics

• Published in: Population and development review Vol. 41; no. 1; pp. 1 - 31
• Main Authors: Esping-Andersen, Gøsta, Billari, Francesco C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.03.2015; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: 20th century; Behavior Modification; Collaboration; Couples; Demographics; Demography; Egalitarianism; Employment; Equilibrium; Family; Family planning; Family Research; Fertility; Fertility Decline; Gender equality; Gender roles; Marriage; Men; Normativity; Twentieth Century; Working women
• ISSN: 0098-7921; 1728-4457
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00024.x

Two dominant theories within family research foresee a long-term decline in marriage, fertility, and partner stability. They also assume that this "less-family" scenario will be spearheaded by higher-educated strata. Trends in the latter half of the twentieth century seemed to provide ample support for both predictions. However, recent signs of change in family behavior raise doubts about their continued validity. In a number of countries we see a halt to, and even reversal of, fertility decline and of couple instability. In parallel, we observe a reversal of the social gradient on both dimensions. Applying a multiple equilibrium framework, we propose a theoretical framework that helps explain both the phase of marital and fertility decline and the subsequent recovery. We focus especially on the endogenous dynamics of the process, which, we argue, depend on the conditions that favor rapid diffusion. Our core argument is that the turnaround is driven by the diffusion of gender-egalitarian norms.