Food price seasonality in Africa: Measurement and extent

Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can...

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Published inFood policy Vol. 67; pp. 119 - 132
Main Authors Gilbert, Christopher L., Christiaensen, Luc, Kaminski, Jonathan
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Elsevier Ltd 01.02.2017
Elsevier
IPC Science and Technology Press
Subjects
AGRICULTURE
COMMODITIES
FOOD MARKET
HUNGER
MAIZE
RICE
SAWTOOTH MODEL
SEASONAL PRICES
SEASONALITY
STAPLE CROPS
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
Burkina Faso
Malawi
Niger
Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
Ghana
Sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopia
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Summary:Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption.
Bibliography:Burkina Faso
Malawi
Niger
Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
Ghana
Sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopia
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The paper forms part of the project “Agriculture in Africa – Telling Facts from Myths” – see http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/africa-myths-and-facts. A preliminary version of the paper was presented at the Società Italiana degli Economisti dello Sviluppo, Florence, Italy, 10–11 September, 2014. Shamnaaz Sufrauj and Lina Datkunaite assisted with calculations. The authors thank a referee, Daniel Gilbert, Denise Osborn and Wouter Zant for useful discussion. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed are entirely those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
Gauss programs for the empirical analysis conducted in this paper are available at: https://sites.google.com/site/christopherlesliegilbert/data.
ISSN:0306-9192
1873-5657
DOI:10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.016