A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018−2019

• Published in: Nature (London) Vol. 590; no. 7846; pp. 428 - 432
• Main Authors: Montzka, Stephen A., Dutton, Geoffrey S., Portmann, Robert W., Chipperfield, Martyn P., Davis, Sean, Feng, Wuhu, Manning, Alistair J., Ray, Eric, Rigby, Matthew, Hall, Bradley D., Siso, Carolina, Nance, J. David, Krummel, Paul B., Mühle, Jens, Young, Dickon, O’Doherty, Simon, Salameh, Peter K., Harth, Christina M., Prinn, Ronald G., Weiss, Ray F., Elkins, James W., Walter-Terrinoni, Helen, Theodoridi, Christina
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 18.02.2021; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 704/106/35/823; 704/106/35/824; 704/172/4081; Bias; Chlorofluorocarbons; Emissions; Emissions (Pollution); Environmental aspects; Forecasts and trends; Humanities and Social Sciences; Laws, regulations and rules; Montreal Protocol; multidisciplinary; Ozone; Ozone depletion; Ozone layer depletion; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Standard deviation; United States; Canada; Asia; Montreal Quebec Canada
• ISSN: 0028-0836; 1476-4687
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03260-5

The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has been in decline since the production of ozone-depleting substances was phased out under the Montreal Protocol 1 , 2 . Since 2013, the concentration decline of CFC-11 slowed unexpectedly owing to increasing emissions, probably from unreported production, which, if sustained, would delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer 1 – 12 . Here we report an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2019 and 2020, derived from atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world. We find that global CFC-11 emissions decreased by 18 ± 6 gigagrams per year (26 ± 9 per cent; one standard deviation) from 2018 to 2019, to a 2019 value (52 ± 10 gigagrams per year) that is similar to the 2008−2012 mean. The decline in global emissions suggests a substantial decrease in unreported CFC-11 production. If the sharp decline in unexpected global emissions and unreported production is sustained, any associated future ozone depletion is likely to be limited, despite an increase in the CFC-11 bank (the amount of CFC-11 produced, but not yet emitted) by 90 to 725 gigagrams by the beginning of 2020. Atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world reveal an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2018 and 2019, reversing recent trends and building confidence in the timely recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer.