Diverging Importance of Drought Stress for Maize and Winter Wheat in Europe

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 9; no. 1; pp. 4249 - 10
• Main Authors: Webber, Heidi, Ewert, Frank, Olesen, Jørgen E., Müller, Christoph, Fronzek, Stefan, Ruane, Alex C., Bourgault, Maryse, Martre, Pierre, Ababaei, Behnam, Bindi, Marco, Ferrise, Roberto, Finger, Robert, Fodor, Nándor, Gabaldón-Leal, Clara, Gaiser, Thomas, Jabloun, Mohamed, Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, Lizaso, Jon I., Lorite, Ignacio J., Manceau, Loic, Moriondo, Marco, Nendel, Claas, Rodríguez, Alfredo, Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, Semenov, Mikhail A., Siebert, Stefan, Stella, Tommaso, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Trombi, Giacomo, Wallach, Daniel
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Goddard Space Flight Center Springer Nature Limited 12.10.2018; Nature Publishing Group UK; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 704/172/4081; 706/1143; Agricultural production; Carbon dioxide; Cereal crops; Climate Change; Corn; Cropping systems; Drought; Droughts; Environmental impact; Europe; Genotypes; Grain; Heat stress; Heat tolerance; Hot Temperature; Humanities and Social Sciences; Life Sciences; Meteorology And Climatology; multidisciplinary; Rainfed farming; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Seasons; Triticum - physiology; Vegetal Biology; Wheat; Winter wheat; Zea mays - physiology; Europe; Maize; Drought; Winter Wheat; Europe
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2

Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984-2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.