Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change
Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic o...
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| Published in | Environmental research letters Vol. 8; no. 3; pp. 1 - 11 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Goddard Space Flight Center
IOP Publishing
01.09.2013
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration-response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr−1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality. |
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| AbstractList | Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM _2.5 -related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr ^−1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM _2.5 . The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality. Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr−1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortalit Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM sub(2.5)) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration-response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470000 (95% confidence interval, 140000 to 900000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM sub(2.5)-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (-20000 to 27000) deaths yr super(-1) due to ozone and 2200 (-350000 to 140000) due to PM sub(2.5). The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality. Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr−1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality. Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr (exp -1) due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality. |
| Audience | PUBLIC |
| Author | Nagashima, Tatsuya Shindell, Drew T Horowitz, Larry W Skeie, Ragnhild MacKenzie, I A Collins, William J Josse, Beatrice Faluvegi, Greg Doherty, Ruth M West, J Jason Dalsoren, Stig Stevenson, David S Folberth, Gerd Cionni, Irene Anenberg, Susan C Righi, Mattia Zhang, Yuqiang Cameron-Smith, Philip Lamarque, Jean-François Bergmann, Daniel Sudo, Kengo Plummer, David Strode, Sarah Takemura, Toshihiko Eyring, Veronika Szopa, Sophie Silva, Raquel A Naik, Vaishali Zeng, Guang Rumbold, Steven |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Raquel A surname: Silva fullname: Silva, Raquel A organization: University of North Carolina Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: J Jason surname: West fullname: West, J Jason email: jjwest@email.unc.edu organization: University of North Carolina Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Yuqiang surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Yuqiang organization: University of North Carolina Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Susan C surname: Anenberg fullname: Anenberg, Susan C organization: US Environmental Protection Agency , Washington, DC 20004, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Jean-François surname: Lamarque fullname: Lamarque, Jean-François organization: National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR Earth System Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80301, USA – sequence: 6 givenname: Drew T surname: Shindell fullname: Shindell, Drew T organization: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute , New York, NY, USA – sequence: 7 givenname: William J surname: Collins fullname: Collins, William J organization: University of Reading Department of Meteorology, Reading, UK – sequence: 8 givenname: Stig surname: Dalsoren fullname: Dalsoren, Stig organization: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo CICERO, Oslo, Norway – sequence: 9 givenname: Greg surname: Faluvegi fullname: Faluvegi, Greg organization: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute , New York, NY, USA – sequence: 10 givenname: Gerd surname: Folberth fullname: Folberth, Gerd organization: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office , Exeter, UK – sequence: 11 givenname: Larry W surname: Horowitz fullname: Horowitz, Larry W organization: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , Princeton, NJ 08540, USA – sequence: 12 givenname: Tatsuya surname: Nagashima fullname: Nagashima, Tatsuya organization: National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, Japan – sequence: 13 givenname: Vaishali surname: Naik fullname: Naik, Vaishali organization: UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , Princeton, NJ 08540, USA – sequence: 14 givenname: Steven surname: Rumbold fullname: Rumbold, Steven organization: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office , Exeter, UK – sequence: 15 givenname: Ragnhild surname: Skeie fullname: Skeie, Ragnhild organization: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo CICERO, Oslo, Norway – sequence: 16 givenname: Kengo surname: Sudo fullname: Sudo, Kengo organization: Nagoya University Earth and Environmental Science, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya, Japan – sequence: 17 givenname: Toshihiko surname: Takemura fullname: Takemura, Toshihiko organization: Kyushu University Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Fukuoka, Japan – sequence: 18 givenname: Daniel surname: Bergmann fullname: Bergmann, Daniel organization: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory , Livermore, CA, USA – sequence: 19 givenname: Philip surname: Cameron-Smith fullname: Cameron-Smith, Philip organization: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory , Livermore, CA, USA – sequence: 20 givenname: Irene surname: Cionni fullname: Cionni, Irene organization: l'Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile (ENEA) Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, Bologna, Italy – sequence: 21 givenname: Ruth M surname: Doherty fullname: Doherty, Ruth M organization: University of Edinburgh School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, UK – sequence: 22 givenname: Veronika surname: Eyring fullname: Eyring, Veronika organization: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre , Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany – sequence: 23 givenname: Beatrice surname: Josse fullname: Josse, Beatrice organization: CNRS-Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse GAME/CNRM, Meteo-France, France – sequence: 24 givenname: I A surname: MacKenzie fullname: MacKenzie, I A organization: University of Edinburgh School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, UK – sequence: 25 givenname: David surname: Plummer fullname: Plummer, David organization: Environment Canada Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada – sequence: 26 givenname: Mattia surname: Righi fullname: Righi, Mattia organization: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre , Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany – sequence: 27 givenname: David S surname: Stevenson fullname: Stevenson, David S organization: University of Edinburgh School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, UK – sequence: 28 givenname: Sarah surname: Strode fullname: Strode, Sarah organization: Universities Space Research Association , Columbia, MD, USA – sequence: 29 givenname: Sophie surname: Szopa fullname: Szopa, Sophie organization: LSCE-CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France – sequence: 30 givenname: Guang surname: Zeng fullname: Zeng, Guang organization: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research , Lauder, New Zealand |
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| Keywords | Particulate Matter Ozone Premature Mortality Air Pollution Climate Change Human Health premature mortality particulate matter air pollution ozone human health climate change |
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| References | 22 23 25 27 28 Selin N E (26) 2009; 4 29 Cohen A J (5) 2004; 2 Dobson J E (6) 2000; 66 30 31 32 11 33 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 (9) 2004 Punger E M (24) 2013 1 2 3 4 7 8 Krewski D (15) 2009 (10) 2010 20 21 |
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| SubjectTerms | Air pollution Air quality Anthropogenic factors Atmospheric chemistry Bioclimatology Climate change Climate effects Climate models Confidence intervals Death Ecology, environment Environment Pollution Estimates Fatalities Health human health Life Sciences Lung cancer Lung diseases Meteorology And Climatology Mortality Ozone Particulate emissions Particulate matter Pollution control Premature mortality Response functions Santé publique et épidémiologie Uncertainty |
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| Title | Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change |
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