Prediction of dengue outbreaks in Mexico based on entomological, meteorological and demographic data

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 13; no. 8; p. e0196047
• Main Authors: Sánchez-González, Gilberto, Condé, Renaud, Noguez Moreno, Raúl, López Vázquez, P C
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 06.08.2018; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Applied mathematics; Biology and Life Sciences; Control; Demographics; Dengue fever; Dengue hemorrhagic fever; Dengue virus; Disease transmission; Drought; Earth Sciences; Environmental conditions; Epidemics; Epidemiology; Fever; Geography; Human behavior; Human population density; Human populations; Humidity; Infections; Life expectancy; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Medicine and Health Sciences; Mosquitoes; Ordinary differential equations; Outbreaks; People and places; Pest outbreaks; Population; Population density; Rainfall; Research and Analysis Methods; Risk analysis; Risk factors; Systematic review; Tropical diseases; Vector-borne diseases; Viral diseases; Viruses; Mexico
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0196047

Dengue virus has shown a complex pattern of transmission across Latin America over the last two decades. In an attempt to explain the permanence of the disease in regions subjected to drought seasons lasting over six months, various hypotheses have been proposed. These include transovarial transmission, forest reservoirs and asymptomatic human virus carriers. Dengue virus is endemic in Mexico, a country in which half of the population is seropositive. Seropositivity is a risk factor for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever upon a second encounter with the dengue virus. Since Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever can cause death, it is important to develop epidemiological mathematical tools that enable policy makers to predict regions potentially at risk for a dengue epidemic. We formulated a mathematical model of dengue transmission, considering both human behavior and environmental conditions pertinent to the transmission of the disease. When data on past human population density, temperature and rainfall were entered into this model, it provided an accurate picture of the actual spread of dengue over recent years in four states (representing two climactic conditions) in Mexico.