Inpatient capacity at children's hospitals during pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, United States

• Published in: Emerging infectious diseases Vol. 17; no. 9; pp. 1685 - 1691
• Main Authors: Sills, Marion R, Hall, Matthew, Fieldston, Evan S, Hain, Paul D, Simon, Harold K, Brogan, Thomas V, Fagbuyi, Daniel B, Mundorff, Michael B, Shah, Samir S
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases 01.09.2011; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• Subjects: (H1N1) subtype; Adolescent; Bed Occupancy - statistics & numerical data; Care and treatment; Child; Child, Preschool; Children's hospitals; CME; Diagnosis; Epidemics; Health aspects; hospital bed capacity; Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data; Humans; Infant; influenza A virus; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; Influenza, Human - epidemiology; pandemic; pandemic (H1N1) 2009; Pandemics; Swine influenza; United States; United States - epidemiology; United States
• ISSN: 1080-6040; 1080-6059
• DOI: 10.3201/eid1709.101950

Quantifying how close hospitals came to exhausting capacity during the outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 can help the health care system plan for more virulent pandemics. This ecologic analysis used emergency department (ED) and inpatient data from 34 US children's hospitals. For the 11-week pandemic (H1N1) 2009 period during fall 2009, inpatient occupancy reached 95%, which was lower than the 101% occupancy during the 2008-09 seasonal influenza period. Fewer than 1 additional admission per 10 inpatient beds would have caused hospitals to reach 100% occupancy. Using parameters based on historical precedent, we built 5 models projecting inpatient occupancy, varying the ED visit numbers and admission rate for influenza-related ED visits. The 5 scenarios projected median occupancy as high as 132% of capacity. The pandemic did not exhaust inpatient bed capacity, but a more virulent pandemic has the potential to push children's hospitals past their maximum inpatient capacity.