Timing of Antiviral Treatment Initiation is Critical to Reduce SARS‐CoV‐2 Viral Load
We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than two logs, drug efficacy needs to be > 90% if treat...
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Published in | CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology Vol. 9; no. 9; pp. 509 - 514 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article Web Resource |
Language | English |
Published |
United States
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
01.09.2020
American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics ; International Society of Pharmacometrics Wiley John Wiley and Sons Inc |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than two logs, drug efficacy needs to be > 90% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 60% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 6–87% efficacy. They may help control virus if administered very early, but may not have a major effect in severely ill patients. |
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Bibliography: | LA-UR-20-22735 89233218CNA000001 USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program National Institutes of Health (NIH) |
ISSN: | 2163-8306 2163-8306 |
DOI: | 10.1002/psp4.12543 |