Analysis of the impacts of risk factors on teenage and older driver injury severity using random-parameter ordered probit
The study analyzed injury severity of teenage and older drivers using 2015–2016 crash data from New Mexico. The fitness of the random-parameter ordered probit models developed for each age group was tested using likelihood ratio, comparing them to a unified model that combines both age groups, as we...
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| Published in | Canadian journal of civil engineering Vol. 47; no. 11; pp. 1249 - 1257 |
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| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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NRC Research Press
01.11.2020
Canadian Science Publishing NRC Research Press |
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| Abstract | The study analyzed injury severity of teenage and older drivers using 2015–2016 crash data from New Mexico. The fitness of the random-parameter ordered probit models developed for each age group was tested using likelihood ratio, comparing them to a unified model that combines both age groups, as well as comparing the random-parameter to fixed-parameter ordered probit for each age group. In both cases separate random-parameter ordered probit provided better results. It was found that vehicle type and age, lighting condition, alcohol or drug use, speeding, and seatbelt use were significant both for the teenage and older driver injury severity. The weather condition and gender were significant only in the teenage driver model, while driver inattention was significant for older drivers. The impacts of crash factors on injury severity was analyzed using marginal effects. The results indicate notable differences in the effects of contributing factors on driver injury severity between teenage and older drivers, including the sensitivity to changes in the mutual predictor parameter values. |
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| AbstractList | The study analyzed injury severity of teenage and older drivers using 2015-2016 crash data from New Mexico. The fitness of the random-parameter ordered probit models developed for each age group was tested using likelihood ratio, comparing them to a unified model that combines both age groups, as well as comparing the random-parameter to fixed-parameter ordered probit for each age group. In both cases separate random-parameter ordered probit provided better results. It was found that vehicle type and age, lighting condition, alcohol or drug use, speeding, and seatbelt use were significant both for the teenage and older driver injury severity. The weather condition and gender were significant only in the teenage driver model, while driver inattention was significant for older drivers. The impacts of crash factors on injury severity was analyzed using marginal effects. The results indicate notable differences in the effects of contributing factors on driver injury severity between teenage and older drivers, including the sensitivity to changes in the mutual predictor parameter values. The study analyzed injury severity of teenage and older drivers using 2015-2016 crash data from New Mexico. The fitness of the random-parameter ordered probit models developed for each age group was tested using likelihood ratio, comparing them to a unified model that combines both age groups, as well as comparing the random-parameter to fixed-parameter ordered probit for each age group. In both cases separate random-parameter ordered probit provided better results. It was found that vehicle type and age, lighting condition, alcohol or drug use, speeding, and seatbelt use were significant both for the teenage and older driver injury severity. The weather condition and gender were significant only in the teenage driver model, while driver inattention was significant for older drivers. The impacts of crash factors on injury severity was analyzed using marginal effects. The results indicate notable differences in the effects of contributing factors on driver injury severity between teenage and older drivers, including the sensitivity to changes in the mutual predictor parameter values. Key words: injury severity, older drivers, teenage drivers, ordered probit model, random parameter model. L'etude a analyse la gravite des blessures chez les conducteurs adolescents et les plus ages a l'aide des donnees sur les accidents de 2015-2016 provenant du Nouveau-Mexique. L'aptitude des modeles des probits ordonnes par des parametres aleatoires elabores pour chaque groupe d'age a ete testee a l'aide du rapport de vraisemblance, en les comparant a un modele unifie combinant les deux groupes d'age, ainsi qu'en comparant les probits ordonnes par parametre aleatoires aux probits ordonnes par parametres fixes pour chaque groupe d'age. Dans les deux cas, les probits ordonnes par parametres aleatoires separes ont donne de meilleurs resultats. On a constate que le type et l'age du vehicule, les conditions d'eclairage, la consommation d'alcool ou de drogues, l'exces de vitesse et l'utilisation de la ceinture de securite etaient importants tant pour les conducteurs adolescents que pour les conducteurs plus ages. Les conditions meteorologiques et la difference entre hommes et femmes etaient des facteurs significatifs seulement dans le modele de conducteur adolescent, tandis que l'inattention du conducteur etait un facteur significatif pour les conducteurs plus ages. Les facteurs d'impact de collision sur la gravite des blessures ont ete analyses a l'aide d'effets marginaux. Les resultats indiquent des differences notables dans les effets des facteurs contributifs sur la gravite des blessures chez les conducteurs adolescents et plus ages, y compris la sensibilite aux changements des valeurs des parametres predictifs mutuels. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : gravite des blessures, conducteurs ages, conducteurs adolescents, modele des probits ordonnes, modele de parametres aleatoires. |
| Abstract_FL | L’étude a analysé la gravité des blessures chez les conducteurs adolescents et les plus âgés à l’aide des données sur les accidents de 2015–2016 provenant du Nouveau-Mexique. L’aptitude des modèles des probits ordonnés par des paramètres aléatoires élaborés pour chaque groupe d’âge a été testée à l’aide du rapport de vraisemblance, en les comparant à un modèle unifié combinant les deux groupes d’âge, ainsi qu’en comparant les probits ordonnés par paramètre aléatoires aux probits ordonnés par paramètres fixes pour chaque groupe d’âge. Dans les deux cas, les probits ordonnés par paramètres aléatoires séparés ont donné de meilleurs résultats. On a constaté que le type et l’âge du véhicule, les conditions d’éclairage, la consommation d’alcool ou de drogues, l’excès de vitesse et l’utilisation de la ceinture de sécurité étaient importants tant pour les conducteurs adolescents que pour les conducteurs plus âgés. Les conditions météorologiques et la différence entre hommes et femmes étaient des facteurs significatifs seulement dans le modèle de conducteur adolescent, tandis que l’inattention du conducteur était un facteur significatif pour les conducteurs plus âgés. Les facteurs d’impact de collision sur la gravité des blessures ont été analysés à l’aide d’effets marginaux. Les résultats indiquent des différences notables dans les effets des facteurs contributifs sur la gravité des blessures chez les conducteurs adolescents et plus âgés, y compris la sensibilité aux changements des valeurs des paramètres prédictifs mutuels. [Traduit par la Rédaction] |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Dimitrijevic, Branislav Kunt, Mehmet Metin Darban Khales, Sina |
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| SubjectTerms | Adolescents Age Age groups Aged Alcohols Analysis Attention conducteurs adolescents conducteurs âgés Crash injuries Demographic aspects Drivers Gender gravité des blessures Injuries Injury analysis injury severity Likelihood ratio Mathematical models modèle de paramètres aléatoires modèle des probits ordonnés Occupant injuries older drivers Older people ordered probit model Parameter sensitivity random parameter model Regression analysis Risk analysis Risk factors Seat belts teenage drivers Teenagers Weather Youth |
| Title | Analysis of the impacts of risk factors on teenage and older driver injury severity using random-parameter ordered probit |
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