Analysis of the impacts of risk factors on teenage and older driver injury severity using random-parameter ordered probit

The study analyzed injury severity of teenage and older drivers using 2015–2016 crash data from New Mexico. The fitness of the random-parameter ordered probit models developed for each age group was tested using likelihood ratio, comparing them to a unified model that combines both age groups, as we...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inCanadian journal of civil engineering Vol. 47; no. 11; pp. 1249 - 1257
Main Authors Darban Khales, Sina, Kunt, Mehmet Metin, Dimitrijevic, Branislav
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published 1840 Woodward Drive, Suite 1, Ottawa, ON K2C 0P7 NRC Research Press 01.11.2020
Canadian Science Publishing NRC Research Press
Subjects
Adolescents
Age
Age groups
Aged
Alcohols
Analysis
Attention
conducteurs adolescents
conducteurs âgés
Crash injuries
Demographic aspects
Drivers
Gender
gravité des blessures
Injuries
Injury analysis
injury severity
Likelihood ratio
Mathematical models
modèle de paramètres aléatoires
modèle des probits ordonnés
Occupant injuries
older drivers
Older people
ordered probit model
Parameter sensitivity
random parameter model
Regression analysis
Risk analysis
Risk factors
Seat belts
teenage drivers
Teenagers
Weather
Youth
United States
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Summary:The study analyzed injury severity of teenage and older drivers using 2015–2016 crash data from New Mexico. The fitness of the random-parameter ordered probit models developed for each age group was tested using likelihood ratio, comparing them to a unified model that combines both age groups, as well as comparing the random-parameter to fixed-parameter ordered probit for each age group. In both cases separate random-parameter ordered probit provided better results. It was found that vehicle type and age, lighting condition, alcohol or drug use, speeding, and seatbelt use were significant both for the teenage and older driver injury severity. The weather condition and gender were significant only in the teenage driver model, while driver inattention was significant for older drivers. The impacts of crash factors on injury severity was analyzed using marginal effects. The results indicate notable differences in the effects of contributing factors on driver injury severity between teenage and older drivers, including the sensitivity to changes in the mutual predictor parameter values.
ISSN:0315-1468
1208-6029
DOI:10.1139/cjce-2019-0394