Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa

• Published in: Environmental & resource economics Vol. 43; no. 3; pp. 313 - 332
• Main Authors: Seo, S. Niggol, Mendelsohn, Robert, Dinar, Ariel, Hassan, Rashid, Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands 01.07.2009; Springer Netherlands; European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists; Springer Nature B.V
• Series: Environmental & Resource Economics
• Subjects: AEZ; Africa; Agricultural economics; Agriculture; Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Climate; Climate change; Climate effects; Crops; Developing countries; Economic Development: Agriculture; Economic impact; Economic impacts; Economic Policy; Economics; Economics and Finance; Energy; Environment; Environmental Economics; Environmental impact; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Environmental Management; Farmers; Farming; Farms; Global Warming Q540; Greenhouse effect; Households; LDCs; Livestock; Natural Disasters; Natural Resources; Other Primary Products O130; Prices Q110; Soils; Studies; Africa; Climate change; Economic impacts; Agriculture; AEZ; Africa
• ISSN: 0924-6460; 1573-1502
• DOI: 10.1007/s10640-009-9270-z

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage estimates reach 27% by 2100, but with the mild and wet PCM scenario, African farmers will benefit. The analysis of AEZs implies that the effects of climate change will be quite different across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid AEZs become more productive in the future.