Assessment of ozone impacts on farming systems: A bio-economic modeling approach applied to the widely diverse French case

• Published in: Ecological economics Vol. 85; pp. 50 - 58
• Main Authors: Humblot, Pierre, Leconte-Demarsy, Delphine, Clerino, Paola, Szopa, Sophie, Castell, Jean-François, Jayet, Pierre-Alain
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.01.2013; Elsevier
• Subjects: Agricultural and farming systems; Agricultural production; Agricultural sciences; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Air pollution; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Applied ecology; Bio-economic modeling; Biological and medical sciences; Environmental economics; Farms; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping; General agronomy. Plant production; Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gas; Hordeum vulgare; Land use; Land utilization; Life Sciences; Ozone; Policy making; Pollution; Production; Productivity; Threats; Triticum aestivum; Wheat; Ozone; Agricultural production; Greenhouse gas; Bio-economic modeling; Land use; Environment economy; French; Farming system; Ecology; Economic aspect; Modeling
• ISSN: 0921-8009; 1873-6106
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.10.012

As a result of anthropogenic activities, ozone is produced in the surface atmosphere, causing direct damage to plants and reducing crop yields. By combining a biophysical crop model with an economic supply model we were able to predict and quantify this effect at a fine spatial resolution. We applied our approach to the very varied French case and showed that ozone has significant productivity and land-use effects. A comparison of moderate and high ozone scenarios for 2030 shows that wheat production may decrease by more than 30% and barley production may increase by more than 14% as surface ozone concentration increases. These variations are due to the direct effect of ozone on yields as well as to modifications in land use caused by a shift toward more ozone-resistant crops: our study predicts a 16% increase in the barley-growing area and an equal decrease in the wheat-growing area. Moreover, mean agricultural gross margin losses can go as high as 2.5% depending on the ozone scenario, and can reach 7% in some particularly affected regions. A rise in ozone concentration was also associated with a reduction of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions of about 2%, as a result of decreased use of nitrogen fertilizers. One noteworthy result was that major impacts, including changes in land use, do not necessarily occur in ozone high concentration zones, and may strongly depend on farm systems and their adaptation capability. Our study suggests that policy makers should view ozone pollution as a major potential threat to agricultural yields. ► Ozone impact on French agriculture is modeled for three 2030 climate scenarios. ► Ozone pollution impacts are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. ► An increase in barley production and a decrease in wheat production are simulated. ► Ozone impact reduces the agricultural gross margin, by 2% in the worst-case scenario. ► Ozone pollution reduces fertilizer use and thus GHG emissions.