The predictive value of neurobiological measures for recidivism in delinquent male young adults

• Published in: Journal of psychiatry & neuroscience Vol. 46; no. 2; pp. E271 - E280
• Main Authors: Zijlmans, Josjan, Marhe, Reshmi, Bevaart, Floor, Van Duin, Laura, Luijks, Marie-Jolette A, Franken, Ingmar, Tiemeier, Henning, Popma, Arne
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Canada CMA Joule Inc 01.03.2021; CMA Impact, Inc; Joule Inc
• Subjects: Aggression; Alcohol use; Antisocial personality disorder; Antisocial Personality Disorder - physiopathology; Autonomic nervous system; Brain research; Cannabis; Cardiac arrhythmia; Cognition & reasoning; Cognitive ability; Demographic aspects; Demographics; Demography; Drug use; EEG; Electroencephalography; Ethics; Ethnicity; Health aspects; Heart rate; Humans; Impulsivity; Inhibition, Psychological; Intelligence; Juvenile Delinquency; Male; Marijuana; Nervous system; Neurobiology; Neuroimaging; Prediction (Psychology); Prediction models; Predictive Value of Tests; Psychological aspects; Psychological research; Questionnaires; Recidivism; Research Paper; Social behavior; Substance-Related Disorders - physiopathology; Young Adult; Young adults; United States; Netherlands
• ISSN: 1180-4882; 1488-2434
• DOI: 10.1503/jpn.200103

Neurobiological measures have been associated with delinquent behaviour, but little is known about the predictive power of these measures for criminal recidivism and whether they have incremental value over and above demographic and behavioural measures. This study examined whether selected measures of autonomic functioning, functional neuroimaging and electroencephalography predict overall and serious recidivism in a sample of 127 delinquent young adults. We assessed demographics; education and intelligence; previous delinquency and drug use; behavioural traits, including aggression and psychopathy; and neurobiological measures, including heart rate, heart rate variability, functional brain activity during an inhibition task and 2 electroencephalographic measures of error-processing. We tested longitudinal associations with recidivism using Cox proportional hazard models and predictive power using C-indexes. Past offences, long-term cannabis use and reactive aggression were strongly associated with recidivism, as were resting heart rate and error-processing. In the predictive model, demographics, past delinquency, drug use and behavioural traits had moderate predictive power for overall and for serious recidivism (C-index over 30 months [fraction of pairs in the data, where the higher observed survival time was correctly predicted]: C30 = 0.68 and 0.75, respectively). Neurobiological measures significantly improved predictive power (C30 = 0.72 for overall recidivism and C30 = 0.80 for serious recidivism). Findings cannot be generalized to females, and follow-up was limited to 4 years. Demographic and behavioural characteristics longitudinally predicted recidivism in delinquent male young adults, and neurobiological measures improved the models. This led to good predictive function, particularly for serious recidivism. Importantly, the most feasible measures (autonomic functioning and electroencephalography) proved to be useful neurobiological predictors.