Individualized Gaussian process-based prediction and detection of local and global gray matter abnormalities in elderly subjects

• Published in: NeuroImage (Orlando, Fla.) Vol. 97; pp. 333 - 348
• Main Authors: Ziegler, G., Ridgway, G.R., Dahnke, R., Gaser, C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier Inc 15.08.2014; Elsevier; Elsevier Limited; Academic Press
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Age; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Aging; Algorithms; Anatomy, Cross-Sectional; Artificial Intelligence; Bayesian inference; Biological and medical sciences; Brain morphology; Brain research; Computer Simulation; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Gaussian processes; Grants; Gray Matter - abnormalities; Gray Matter - pathology; Humans; Image Processing, Computer-Assisted - methods; Lifespan brain aging; Magnetic Resonance Imaging - methods; Medical imaging; Medical research; Middle Aged; NMR; Normal Distribution; Nuclear magnetic resonance; Parameter estimation; Pharmaceutical industry; Single case analysis; Standard deviation; Studies; Vertebrates: nervous system and sense organs; Young Adult; Single case analysis; Lifespan brain aging; Bayesian inference; Brain morphology; Gaussian processes; Human; Senescence; Morphology; Central nervous system; Encephalon
• ISSN: 1053-8119; 1095-9572; 1095-9572
• DOI: 10.1016/j.neuroimage.2014.04.018

Structural imaging based on MRI is an integral component of the clinical assessment of patients with potential dementia. We here propose an individualized Gaussian process-based inference scheme for clinical decision support in healthy and pathological aging elderly subjects using MRI. The approach aims at quantitative and transparent support for clinicians who aim to detect structural abnormalities in patients at risk of Alzheimer's disease or other types of dementia. Firstly, we introduce a generative model incorporating our knowledge about normative decline of local and global gray matter volume across the brain in elderly. By supposing smooth structural trajectories the models account for the general course of age-related structural decline as well as late-life accelerated loss. Considering healthy subjects' demography and global brain parameters as informative about normal brain aging variability affords individualized predictions in single cases. Using Gaussian process models as a normative reference, we predict new subjects' brain scans and quantify the local gray matter abnormalities in terms of Normative Probability Maps (NPM) and global z-scores. By integrating the observed expectation error and the predictive uncertainty, the local maps and global scores exploit the advantages of Bayesian inference for clinical decisions and provide a valuable extension of diagnostic information about pathological aging. We validate the approach in simulated data and real MRI data. We train the GP framework using 1238 healthy subjects with ages 18–94years, and predict in 415 independent test subjects diagnosed as healthy controls, Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's disease. •We propose an approach to support individualized clinical decisions in elderlies.•Gaussian process models are used to build a normative generative model of aging.•It affords probabilistic predictions of local gray matter volume in subjects.•We validate the model using simulated and large real MRI data samples.