A Methodology for Risk Analysis Based on Hybrid Bayesian Networks: Application to the Regasification System of Liquefied Natural Gas Onboard a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit

• Published in: Risk analysis Vol. 34; no. 12; pp. 2098 - 2120
• Main Authors: Martins, Marcelo Ramos, Schleder, Adriana Miralles, Droguett, Enrique López
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hoboken, NJ Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2014; Wiley
• Subjects: Analysis; Applied sciences; Bayes Theorem; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian method; Bayesian networks; Boolean; Boolean algebra; Energy; Energy sources; Exact sciences and technology; FSRU; Gasification; General, economic and professional studies; Liquefied natural gas; LNG regasification; Mathematical models; Methodology; Natural Gas; Onboard; reliability analysis; Risk analysis; Risk Assessment; Risk theory; Ships; Staff. Occupational work. Work management. Control. Safety. Accidents. Professional diseases; Studies; Uncertainty; LNG; Methodology; LNG regasification; Risk analysis; FSRU; Storage; reliability analysis; Regasification; Bayes network; Safety; Bayesian networks; Reliability; Application; Floating system; risk analysis
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.12245

This article presents an iterative six‐step risk analysis methodology based on hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs). In typical risk analysis, systems are usually modeled as discrete and Boolean variables with constant failure rates via fault trees. Nevertheless, in many cases, it is not possible to perform an efficient analysis using only discrete and Boolean variables. The approach put forward by the proposed methodology makes use of BNs and incorporates recent developments that facilitate the use of continuous variables whose values may have any probability distributions. Thus, this approach makes the methodology particularly useful in cases where the available data for quantification of hazardous events probabilities are scarce or nonexistent, there is dependence among events, or when nonbinary events are involved. The methodology is applied to the risk analysis of a regasification system of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on board an FSRU (floating, storage, and regasification unit). LNG is becoming an important energy source option and the world's capacity to produce LNG is surging. Large reserves of natural gas exist worldwide, particularly in areas where the resources exceed the demand. Thus, this natural gas is liquefied for shipping and the storage and regasification process usually occurs at onshore plants. However, a new option for LNG storage and regasification has been proposed: the FSRU. As very few FSRUs have been put into operation, relevant failure data on FSRU systems are scarce. The results show the usefulness of the proposed methodology for cases where the risk analysis must be performed under considerable uncertainty.