Validation of prognostic scores predicting mortality in acute liver decompensation or acute-on-chronic liver failure: A Thailand multicenter study

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 17; no. 11; p. e0277959
• Main Authors: Teerasarntipan, Tongluk, Thanapirom, Kessarin, Chirapongsathorn, Sakkarin, Suttichaimongkol, Tanita, Chamroonkul, Naichaya, Bunchorntavakul, Chalermrat, Siramolpiwat, Sith, Chainuvati, Siwaporn, Sobhonslidsuk, Abhasnee, Leerapun, Apinya, Piratvisuth, Teerha, Sukeepaisarnjaroen, Wattana, Tanwandee, Tawesak, Treeprasertsuk, Sombat
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 22.11.2022; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure - diagnosis; Ascites; Bacterial diseases; Bacterial infections; Biology and Life Sciences; Care and treatment; Cirrhosis; Creatinine; Development and progression; Enrollments; Failure; Hepatitis; Humans; Infections; Kidney diseases; Kidneys; Laboratories; Liver; Liver cancer; Liver cirrhosis; Liver Cirrhosis - complications; Liver diseases; Liver failure; Medical prognosis; Medicine and Health Sciences; Mortality; Observational studies; Parameters; Patients; Performance prediction; Physical Sciences; Prognosis; Regression analysis; Renal failure; Research and Analysis Methods; Statistical analysis; Survival analysis; Tertiary; Thailand - epidemiology; Variables; Thailand
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277959

Cirrhosis patients with worsening of the liver function are defined as acute decompensation (AD) and those who develop extrahepatic organ failure are defined as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Both AD and ACLF have an extremely poor prognosis. However, information regarding prognostic predictors is still lacking in Asian populations. We aimed to identify prognostic factors for 30-day and 90-day mortality in cirrhosis patients who develop AD with or without ACLF. We included 9 tertiary hospitals from Thailand in a retrospective observational study enrolling hospitalized cirrhosis patients with AD. ACLF was diagnosed according to the EASL-CLIF criteria, which defined as AD patients who have kidney failure or a combination of at least two non-kidney organ failure. Outcomes were clinical parameters and prognostic scores associated with mortality evaluated at 30 days and 90 days. Between 2015 and 2020, 602 patients (301 for each group) were included. The 30-day and 90-day mortality rates of ACLF vs. AD were 57.48% vs. 25.50% (p<0.001) and 67.44% vs. 32.78% (p<0.001), respectively. For ACLF patients, logistic regression analysis adjusted for demographic data, and clinical information showed that increasing creatinine was a predictor for 30-day mortality (p = 0.038), while the CLIF-C OF score predicted both 30-day (p = 0.018) and 90-day (p = 0.037) mortalities, achieving the best discriminatory power with AUROCs of 0.705 and 0.709, respectively. For AD patients, none of the parameters was found to be significantly associated with 30-day mortality, while bacterial infection, CLIF-AD score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score were independent parameters associated with 90-day mortality, with p values of 0.041, 0.024 and 0.024. However, their predictive performance became nonsignificant after adjustment by multivariate regression analysis. Regarding Thai patients, the CLIF-C OF score was the best predictor for 30-day and 90-day mortalities in ACLF patients, while appropriate prognostic factors for AD patients remained inconclusive.