FUTURE LIFE EXPECTANCY IN AUSTRALIA, EUROPE, JAPAN AND NORTH AMERICA

Human life expectancy has risen in most developed countries over the last century, causing the observed demographic shifts. Babel, Bomsdorf and Schmidt (forthcoming) introduce a stochastic mortality model using panel data procedures which distinguishes between a common time effect and a common age e...

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Published inJournal of population research (Canberra, A.C.T.) Vol. 24; no. 1; pp. 119 - 131
Main Authors Babel, Bernhard, Bomsdorf, Eckart, Schmidt, Rafael
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Dordrecht Australian Population Association 01.05.2007
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Accelerated death benefits
Age groups
Australia
Cohort analysis
Comparative analysis
Confidence interval
Countries
Cross-national analysis
Demographic change
Demography
Developed countries
Europe
Forecasting
Forecasting models
Forecasts
Japan
Life Events
Life expectancy
Life tables
Longevity
Mathematical models
Mortality
Mortality Rates
North America
Parameter estimation
Population projections
Reproduction
RESEARCH NOTE
Statistical forecasts
Statistics
Stochastic models
Australia
North America
Europe
Japan
France, Alps Mts
Canada
USA
Italy
British Isles, Wales
France
British Isles, England
Scandinavia
Germany
Spain
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Summary:Human life expectancy has risen in most developed countries over the last century, causing the observed demographic shifts. Babel, Bomsdorf and Schmidt (forthcoming) introduce a stochastic mortality model using panel data procedures which distinguishes between a common time effect and a common age effect of mortality involvement. Using this mortality model, the present paper provides forecasts of future life expectancy for 17 countries divided into 12 regions: Australia, Alps, Bene, Canada, England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Scandinavia and the United States of America. We consider (traditional) period life expectancies as well as cohort life expectancies, the latter being a more realistic approach but less common. It turns out that a continuing increase of life expectancy is expected in all considered countries. Further, we show that the probabilistic uncertainty of forecast life expectancies is different if either period life expectancies or cohort life expectancies are considered and, moreover, the uncertainty increases substantially if the error of parameter estimation is included.
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Journal of Population Research, Vol. 24, No. 1, May 2007: 119-131
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ISSN:1443-2447
1835-9469
DOI:10.1007/BF03031881