Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 10; no. 1; pp. 2844 - 10
• Main Authors: Zabel, Florian, Delzeit, Ruth, Schneider, Julia M., Seppelt, Ralf, Mauser, Wolfram, Václavík, Tomáš
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 28.06.2019; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 704/158; 704/172; 704/844; 706/1143; Agricultural land; Agricultural production; Agriculture - economics; Agriculture - methods; Biodiversity; Biodiversity hot spots; Climate Change; Conservation; Conservation of Natural Resources - methods; Energy crops; Expansion; Humanities and Social Sciences; Markets; Models, Economic; multidisciplinary; Pricing; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Supply & demand; Tropical environment; Tropical environments
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10775-z

With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We investigate the consequences of attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either by cropland expansion or intensification, and analyse their impacts on agricultural markets and biodiversity. We find that both scenarios lead to lower crop prices across the world, even in regions where production decreases. Cropland expansion mostly affects biodiversity hotspots in Central and South America, while cropland intensification threatens biodiversity especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, India and China. Our results suggest that production gains will occur at the costs of biodiversity predominantly in developing tropical regions, while Europe and North America benefit from lower world market prices without putting their own biodiversity at risk. By identifying hotspots of potential future conflicts, we demonstrate where conservation prioritization is needed to balance agricultural production with conservation goals. The increase in needs for agricultural commodities is projected to outpace the growth of farmland production globally, leading to high pressure on farming systems in the next decades. Here, the authors investigate the future impact of cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity, and suggest the need for balancing agricultural production with conservation goals.