Optimal allocation of pandemic influenza vaccine depends on age, risk and timing

• Published in: Vaccine Vol. 26; no. 29; pp. 3742 - 3749
• Main Authors: Mylius, Sido D, Hagenaars, Thomas J, Lugnér, Anna K, Wallinga, Jacco
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 04.07.2008; Elsevier; Elsevier Limited
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Age Factors; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Allergy and Immunology; Applied microbiology; Biological and medical sciences; Child; Child, Preschool; Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control; Dynamic model; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Humans; Immunization; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Influenza; Influenza Vaccines - supply & distribution; Influenza, Human - epidemiology; Influenza, Human - prevention & control; Interventions against pandemic; Mathematical modeling; Microbiology; Middle Aged; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; Pandemics; Risk Factors; Time Factors; Vaccines; Vaccines, antisera, therapeutical immunoglobulins and monoclonal antibodies (general aspects); Dynamic model; Mathematical modeling; Interventions against pandemic; Infection; Viral disease; Influenza; Models; Vaccine; Modeling; Age
• ISSN: 0264-410X; 1873-2518
• DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.04.043

Abstract The limited production capacity for vaccines raises the question what the best strategy is for allocating the vaccine to mitigate an influenza pandemic. We developed an age-structured model for spread of an influenza pandemic and validated it against observations from the Asian flu pandemic. Two strategies were evaluated: vaccination can be implemented at the start of the influenza pandemic, or vaccination will be implemented near the peak of it. Our results suggest prioritizing individuals with a high-risk of complications if a vaccine becomes available during a pandemic. If available at the start, vaccinating school children might be considered since this results in slightly lower expected number of deaths.