An agent-based model of the interrelation between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activities

• Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences Vol. 477; no. 2245; p. 20200604
• Main Authors: Kano, Takeshi, Yasui, Kotaro, Mikami, Taishi, Asally, Munehiro, Ishiguro, Akio
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England The Royal Society Publishing 01.01.2021
• Subjects: COVID-19; infection; agent-based model; economy
• ISSN: 1364-5021; 1471-2946
• DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2020.0604

As of July 2020, COVID-19 caused by SARS-COV-2 is spreading worldwide, causing severe economic damage. While minimizing human contact is effective in managing outbreaks, it causes severe economic losses. Strategies to solve this dilemma by considering the interrelation between the spread of the virus and economic activities are urgently needed to mitigate the health and economic damage. Here, we propose an abstract agent-based model of the COVID-19 outbreak that accounts for economic activities. The computational simulation of the model recapitulates the trade-off between the health and economic damage associated with voluntary restraint measures. Based on the simulation results, we discuss how the macroscopic dynamics of infection and economics emerge from individuals' behaviours. We believe our model can serve as a platform for discussing solutions to the above-mentioned dilemma.